Uncertainty factor in modeling dynamics of economic systems

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

S ince the early days of probability theory, there has been a distinction between probabilities that are given, as in a game of chance, and probabilities that are not given, but reflect a subjective degree of belief; Hacking (1975) and Shafer (1978) offer historical surveys. In economics, Knight (1921) is typically credited with the distinction between situations of “risk” and of “uncertainty.”...

Uncertainty in Economic Analysis and the Economic Analysis of Uncertainty∗

Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in Europe: Introduction

Background Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this topic is still limited. Objective This special collection of Demographic Research focuses on the issue of how economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe. ...